Donnerstag, 22. Juli 2010

Solow über DSGE-Modelle

Robert Solow hat vor dem US-Kongress über den Nutzen von DSGE-Modellen für die Wirtschaftspolitik in Rezessionen Rede und Antwort gestanden und kommt zu dem Schluss, dass sie nicht sehr hilfreich sind, um sich über den Sinn oder Unsinn von Konjunkturpolitik Gedanken zu machen:
"[...] To the extent that the observed economy is actually doing the best it can, given the
circumstances, it is already adapting optimally to whatever expected or unexpected disturbances come along. It can not do better. It follows that conscious public policy can only make things worse. If the government has better information than the representative agent has, then all it has to do is to make that information public. [...]

The point I am making is that the DSGE model has nothing useful to say about anti-recession policy because it has built into its essentially implausible assumptions the “conclusion” that there is nothing for macroeconomic policy to do. I think we have just seen how untrue this is for an economy attached to a highly-leveraged, weakly-regulated financial system. But I think it was just as visibly false in earlier recessions (and in episodes of inflationary overheating) that followed quite different patterns. There are other traditions with better ways to do macroeconomics.

One can find other, more narrowly statistical, reasons for believing that the DSGE approach is not a good way to understand macroeconomic behavior, but this is not the time to go into them. An interesting question remains as to why the macroeconomics profession led itself down this particular garden path. [...]"
Well, ...

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