Montag, 30. August 2010


Ben Bernanke hat auf der Zentralbank-Konferenz in Jackson Hole am Freitag eine Rede über den Konjunkturausblick und Geldpolitik gehalten. Einige wichtige Passagen:
"In many countries, including the United States and most other advanced industrial nations, growth during the past year has been too slow and joblessness remains too high. Financial conditions are generally much improved, but bank credit remains tight; moreover, much of the work of implementing financial reform lies ahead of us. Managing fiscal deficits and debt is a daunting challenge for many countries, and imbalances in global trade and current accounts remain a persistent problem."

"Household finances and attitudes also bear heavily on the housing market, which has generally remained depressed. In particular, home sales dropped sharply following the recent expiration of the homebuyers' tax credit. Going forward, improved affordability--the result of lower house prices and record-low mortgage rates--should boost the demand for housing. However, the overhang of foreclosed-upon and vacant housing and the difficulties of many households in obtaining mortgage financing are likely to continue to weigh on the pace of residential investment for some time yet."

"Notwithstanding the fact that the policy rate is near its zero lower bound, the Federal Reserve retains a number of tools and strategies for providing additional stimulus. I will focus here on three that have been part of recent staff analyses and discussion at FOMC meetings: (1) conducting additional purchases of longer-term securities, (2) modifying the Committee's communication, and (3) reducing the interest paid on excess reserves. I will also comment on a fourth strategy, proposed by several economists--namely, that the FOMC increase its inflation goals."

"Falling into deflation is not a significant risk for the United States at this time, but that is true in part because the public understands that the Federal Reserve will be vigilant and proactive in addressing significant further disinflation. It is worthwhile to note that, if deflation risks were to increase, the benefit-cost tradeoffs of some of our policy tools could become significantly more favorable."

Ganz sicher hat die Rede die Märkte ein Stück weit darauf vorbereitet, dass die Fed demnächst wieder zusätzliche Maßnahmen zum "quantitative easing" ankündigen könnte. Außerdem hat Bernanke deutlich gemacht, dass er für den Fall, dass ein Abrutschen in eine Deflation deutlich wahrscheinlicher würde als momentan, eine Anhebung des Inflationszieles nicht ausschließt.

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