Donnerstag, 7. April 2011

Zu viel Finance geht auch!

Eine interessante Studie wurde auf VOX vorgestellt. Darin untersuchen die Autoren, ob es ein Niveau der Durchdringung der Volkswirtschaft durch die Finanzwirtschaft gibt, ab dem die Effekte für das Wachstum negativ werden. Ein paar Auszüge:
"Our results show that the marginal effect of financial development on output growth becomes negative when credit to the private sector surpasses 110% of GDP. This result is surprisingly consistent across different types of estimators (simple regressions and semi-parametric estimations) and data (country-level and industry-level)."

"We also run a battery of tests showing that the size of the financial sector played an important role in amplifying the effects of the global recession that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. While most of the recent discussion on the negative effects of financial development concentrates on the advanced economies, we show that during the recent crisis the amplifying role of the financial sector was also important for developing countries."

"We believe that our results have potentially important implications for financial regulation. The financial industry has argued that the Basel III capital requirements will have a negative effect on bank profits and lead to a contraction of lending with large negative consequences on future GDP growth (Institute for International Finance 2010). While it is far from certain that higher capital ratios will reduce profitability (Admati et al. 2010), our analysis suggests that there are several countries for which tighter credit standards would actually be desirable."
Mir scheint es so als würde die Studie empirische Belege für etwas liefern, das viele schon seit längerem (spätestens seit der Finanzkrise) im Gefühl haben. Es gibt also nicht nur ein "too-big-to-fail" sondern auch ein "too-big-to-do-the-economy-good"!

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