Mittwoch, 13. Juli 2011

IWF-Bericht zur deutschen Wirtschaft

Gestern hat der IWF seinen neuen Bericht zur wirtschaftlichen Lage in Deutschland veröffentlicht. Dieser fällt insgesamt sehr positiv aus. Insbesondere die Bewältigung der Wirtschaftskrise wird positiv hervorgehoben.

Die Zusammenfassung:
"Background: Given its large size and international connections, Germany has been called on to assist the global economic recovery. Similarly, a robust German financial system is important both for German and global financial stability. The authorities recognize these linkages and the consequent German responsibilities. They welcomed the focus of this consultation on Germany’s international role.

Challenges: The authorities argued, and staff agreed, that short-term stimulative measures — more rapidly raising wages or delaying fiscal consolidation — could compromise German strengths with dubious value for other countries. The real German challenge is to strengthen its areas of weakness and, thus, play a more medium-term international role. The key is to counteract growth constraints in a way that also supports sustainable rebalancing via higher domestic demand growth. Thus, Germany’s gain would benefit Europe and the global economy. Also, given the financial system’s large size, its international connections, and the nonlinear behavior of these connections at times of stress, the forward-looking development of stronger German systemic shock absorbers is an important goal of the authorities.

Policy Recommendations: Enhancing growth will require focus: tax policy to raise labor force participation and investment, education and innovation policy to raise productivity (especially in the services sector via more widespread use of information technology), and an efficient and stable financial sector (that is also more sensitive to financing start-up ventures). The authorities broadly agreed with this agenda. They also agreed that these measures will help raise the traditionally anemic consumption growth, and such autonomous demand will boost Germany’s role as an international locomotive and narrow its current account surplus. However, they also felt that some rebalancing was already ongoing. On securing financial stability, the authorities recognize the importance of purposeful progress in resolving the legacy of the crisis and greater clarity on the regulatory and supervisory regime to facilitate proactive supervisory practice. They saw some merit in staff’s suggestions for streamlining the permanent resolution and deposit insurance mechanisms and changes in the three-pillar banking system to meet new challenges; however, they saw these as more medium-term tasks."
Hinsichtlich der Konjunktur geht der IWF von einem Anstieg des realen BIP von 3,2 % in diesem und 2,0 % im kommenden Jahr aus. Für meinen Geschmack etwas zu pessimistisch für dieses Jahr ...

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