Montag, 12. Dezember 2011

Krisenbekämpfung

Wollen wir mal hoffen, dass P. Krugman nicht Recht behält:
"What Anglo-Saxon economists need to understand is that the Germans and the ECB really, really don’t share our worldview; they really do believe that austerity is all you need. And all indications are that they will cling to that belief, even as the euro falls apart — an event they will insist was caused by the fecklessness of the debtors. Given a choice between saving Europe and remaining righteous, they’ll choose the latter."
Dazu auch noch der Link zu einem Aufsatz von R. Perotti, in dem er zwar einige Schwächen der IWF-Studie zum Effekt von staatlichen Sparprogrammen analysiert, aber insgesamt auch - entgegen den Resultaten von älteren Studien von ihm - zu dem Ergebniss kommt, dass öffentliche Sparprogramme tendenziell ein Schrumpfen der Wirtschaftsleistung zur Folge haben.
"[The] results cast doubt on at least some versions of the "expansionary fiscal consolidations" hypothesis, and on its applicability to many countries in the present circumstances. A depreciation is not available to EMU members today (except vis à vis countries outside the Eurozone). A net export boom is not feasible for the world as a whole. A further decline in interest rates is unlikely in the current situation. And incomes policies are not popular nowadays; moreover, international experience, and the Danish case, suggest that they are ineffective after a few years."

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