Dienstag, 24. April 2012

Erholung der Weltwirtschaft

Mein Mitautor Prakash Loungani hat zusammen mit zwei Kollegen für den IWF World Economic Outlook untersucht (Box 1.2), wie der Verlauf der aktuellen Erholung der Weltwirtschaft im Vergleich zu früheren Aufschwungsphasen abschneidet. Aus der Kurzzusammenfassung auf Voxeu:
"Although the strong rebound in world output during this global recovery is comparable with previous episodes, the divergence of advanced and emerging market economies’ fortunes sets the current recovery apart. Emerging market economies have rebounded strongly and have been the engine of world growth during this recovery. The robust performance of these economies can be explained in part by their strong macroeconomic frameworks and structural reforms.

In contrast, for advanced economies, the current recovery is predicted to be the weakest of the post-war era. The trajectory of the ongoing recovery in advanced economies has so far paralleled the recovery following the 1991 recession to a surprising degree. Both of these recoveries were hampered by housing and financial market problems in these economies. And both recoveries were slowed down partly by challenges in Europe. These problems are likely to continue sapping the strength of the recovery unless policymakers adopt stronger policies to address them."

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