Mein Koautor Prakash hat zusammen mit zwei Kollegen für den IWF in einem Aufsatz untersucht, welche Folgen staatliche Sparprogramme in der Vergangenheit hatten.
Ein Ergebnis: Vor allem Lohnempfänger müssen unter den Folgen leiden, während die Auswirkungen auf Miet- und Kapitaleinkommen deutlich geringer sind.
Die Autoren schlussfolgern:
"The research described here shows that it is important to have realistic expectations about the short-term consequences of fiscal consolidation: it is likely to lower incomes—hitting wage-earners more than others—and raise unemployment, particularly long-term unemployment. These costs must be balanced against the potential longer-term benefits that consolidation can confer—such as reducing interest rates and lightening the burden of interest payments, permitting cuts to distortionary taxes (those that discourage desirable behavior). [...]
Fiscal consolidation plans should also spell out how policies would respond to shocks, such as slower growth than envisaged in the plan. For instance, plans could specify that unemployment benefits would be shielded from cuts in the event of slower growth than assumed in the plan. History shows that fiscal plans succeed when they permit “some flexibility while credibly preserving the medium-term consolidation objectives” (IMF, 2011; see also Mauro, 2011)."