Dienstag, 23. Oktober 2012

Neues zum Fiskalmultiplikator

Auf Voxeu fassen Eichengreen und O'Rourke ihre Studie zur Höhe des Fiskalmulitplikators zusammen, in der sie Daten der 1930er Jahre auswerten.

Ähnlich wie der IWF im jüngsten WEO zeigen sie, dass der Konjunktureffekt von fiskalischen Impulsen in einem Umfeld wie dem derzeitigen, das durch hohe Unterauslastung der Kapazitäten gekennzeichnet ist, ziemlich hoch ist:
"[...] our estimate of the multiplier is 1.6 when evaluated at the median values of the independent variables. These estimates based on 1930s data are at the higher end of those in the literature, consistent with the idea that the multiplier will be greater when interest rates do not respond to the fiscal impulse, whether because they are at the lower bound or for other reasons. The 1930s experience thus suggests that the IMF’s new estimates are, if anything, on the conservative side."
Ihre Schlussfolgerung:
"In the classic movie Casablanca, Captain Renault expressed shock when publicly describing an uncomfortable fact of which he was privately aware. We suspect that European officials, while also expressing shock and outrage over the IMF’s uncomfortable finding, were similarly aware of what was going on 'in here' well before the Fund brought it to the world’s attention. The question now is whether, having been forced to go public, they are finally prepared to translate that awareness into action."

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