Dienstag, 22. Januar 2013

NGDP-Targeting

Drei britische Ökonomen machen ein gutes Argument gegen einen Wechsel vom "inflation targeting" zum "nominal GDP targeting":
"Among other issues, nominal GDP targeting means that uncertainty surrounding future real growth rates compounds uncertainty on future inflation rates. Thus the switch is likely to raise uncertainty about future inflation and weaken the anchoring of inflation expectations."
Und weiter:
"Whether an NGDP target is to be assessed in levels or in growth format, there are two other reasons to be chary of it. First, its use would be operationally problematical. A nominal GDP target has several operational shortcomings in comparison with an inflation target. The data for CPI are available within three weeks of the end of each month. Nominal GDP data are only available quarterly, with a lag of two months from the end of the quarter. CPI data, once published, do not (normally) get revised. Whereas part of the frequently sizeable revisions to real GDP estimates is usually due to a switch between the real and inflation element of GDP. Nevertheless, nominal GDP figures themselves do become significantly revised [...]."
Insgesamt glaube ich wegen dieser vielen Nachteile nicht, dass sich in nächster Zeit ein Wechsel des geldpolitischen Regimes in den wichtigen Währungsräumen durchsetzen wird.

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