Freitag, 1. März 2013

US-Budgetkürzungen

B. Bernanke, Chairman der US-Notenbank, hat sich skeptisch über die Notwendigkeit und Angemessenheit der bevorstehenden automatischen Kürzungen quer durch alle Politikbereiche in den USA geäußert.

"The economy's performance both over the near term and in the longer run will depend importantly on the course of fiscal policy. The challenge for the Congress and the Administration is to put the federal budget on a sustainable long-run path that promotes economic growth and stability without unnecessarily impeding the current recovery

However, a substantial portion of the recent progress in lowering the deficit has been concentrated in near-term budget changes, which, taken together, could create a significant headwind for the economic recovery. The CBO estimates that deficit-reduction policies in current law will slow the pace of real GDP growth by about 1-1/2 percentage points this year, relative to what it would have been otherwise. A significant portion of this effect is related to the automatic spending sequestration that is scheduled to begin on March 1, which, according to the CBO's estimates, will contribute about 0.6 percentage point to the fiscal drag on economic growth this year. Given the still-moderate underlying pace of economic growth, this additional near-term burden on the recovery is significant. Moreover, besides having adverse effects on jobs and incomes, a slower recovery would lead to less actual deficit reduction in the short run for any given set of fiscal actions.

To address both the near- and longer-term issues, the Congress and the Administration should consider replacing the sharp, frontloaded spending cuts required by the sequestration with policies that reduce the federal deficit more gradually in the near term but more substantially in the longer run. Such an approach could lessen the near-term fiscal headwinds facing the recovery while more effectively addressing the longer-term imbalances in the federal budget."
Das ist natürlich auch ein Teil des "Spiels" zwischen Geld- und Finanzpolitik. Aber mit Blick auf die Daten zu den öffentlichen Haushalten in den USA scheinen mir die Probleme auch eher in den langfristig angelegten Ausgabensteigerungen für obligatorische Ausgaben (z. B. im Gesundheitsbereich) zu liegen als in der aktuellen und mittelfristigen Budgetsituation.

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