Freitag, 5. April 2013

Politikwechsel in Japan

Nachdem bereits vor einiger Zeit ein großes Konjunkturprogramm für Japan angekündigt wurde, hat gestern die Zentralbank neue expansive Maßnahmen angekündigt.

Der Yen hat jedenfalls gestern mal direkt stark gegenüber allen wichtigen Währungen abgewertet.

Noah Smith ist überrascht, dass die Japaner dieses "Politikexperiment" wirklich durchziehen und schreibt:
"Now, we get to see how well monetary policy really works, in an economy with a deflationary trap and well-anchored deflationary expectations. A dramatic (though uncontrolled) natural macroeconomic experiment is being carried out in Japan - probably the biggest thing since Volcker whipped U.S. inflation in the early 80s.
IF monetary policy works - i.e. if it can raise inflation in a controlled manner while boosting output - it's not only a huge win for Japan - which needs moderate inflation to erode its mountainous debt, and could probably use an employment boost too - but also for New Keynesian and monetarist type macroeconomics, which generally holds that a central bank has the tools to control the rate of inflation (or to beat any depression). A failure would mean either an uncontrolled "inflation snap-up", or a failure to budge Japanese expectations and prices. A majority or plurality of top macroeconomists probably believes in some sort of monetarism, so hopes are high. I'm a little bit more agnostic, and I'm excited to see what happens."

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