Montag, 21. Oktober 2013

Tappering

J. Hamilton fasst auf Econbrowser die Erkenntnisse über die Effekte der Maßnahmen zur quantitativen Lockerung zusammen.

Weil die beobachteten direkten Effekte der Anleihekäufe so klein sind, fasst er zusammen:
"For example, I noted earlier that if the Fed had (as some market observers once anticipated) announced at its September FOMC meeting that it would begin to reduce its net purchases of Treasury securities by $2.5 B per month beginning in October, the result as of the end of 2014 would be that the Fed would be holding about $100 B less in Treasury securities by the end of 2014 than if it waits to begin tapering until January. Using the above table as a guide, that suggests a difference of perhaps 2.5-5 basis points (that is, less than 0.05 percentage points difference in the annual yield) on a 10-year Treasury. Even if you double or triple that by adding in the consequences of MBS purchases, it's hard to see this as the #1 news event with which financial markets should be gripped.

The real question is not when will the Fed begin to reduce the rate at which it purchases Treasury securities, but instead should be, when will the Fed first raise the interest rate paid on reserves? That, rather than a change in large-scale asset purchases, is the key date to be watching for."
Ich glaube auch, dass der Ausstieg aus den Anleihekäufen nur insofern große Wirkungen auf die Anleihemärkte haben wird, als die Marktteilnehmer ggf. aufgrund dessen ihre Erwartungen über den zukünftigen Pfad der Zentralbankzinsen ändern werden. Das schlüge dann direkt auf das Niveau der aktuellen Langfristzinsen durch.

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