Donnerstag, 15. Mai 2014

Inflationsrisiken

"When it comes to the issue of when interest rates should start rising, one of the points I and others have often made is that the risks are not symmetric. If inflation starts rising faster than we expect monetary policy can quickly respond. Alternatively if we actually have more ‘spare capacity’ than we currently believe, it may take some time for this to become apparent (inflation is more sticky when it gets low), and the zero lower bound limits what monetary policy can do.
In this light, the following table from the Bank of England’s inflation report issued today is rather interesting.
[...] They suggest that the upside risks to inflation are small, because monetary policy is capable of responding quickly. Overestimating the degree of current slack does not lead to inflation ‘taking off’. Perhaps this helps to explain why the Bank appears to some to be rather relaxed about the need to raise rates."
Wenn ihr mich fragt: Verdammt plausibel und einleuchtend. Denn Geldpolitik ist aller Erfahrung nach eben nicht machtlos, wenn es vorübergehend zu höherer Inflation oder höheren Inflationserwartungen kommen sollte ... wohl aber, wie man gerade überall und in Japan schon länger sieht, dann, wenn die Inflation zu niedrig ist und man an der Nullzinsschranke herumkrebst.

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