Ein interessantes neues Papier von James Cloye und Patrick Hürtgen.
Die Autoren schauen bereits weit nach vorne und beschäftigen sich mit den Effekten von Zinsänderungen, wenn die Nullzinsschranke nicht bindet. Die Zusammenfassung:
"This column presents new estimates of the effects of monetary policy for the UK by applying the identification methodology of Romer and Romer (2004). While numerous studies employ more conventional VAR methodologies, to our knowledge, there has been no other application of this narrative strategy to corroborate the large effects found for the US economy. Moreover, there is comparatively little evidence of the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy for the UK, and our new research (described in Cloyne and Huertgen 2014) fills this gap.Our UK findings are in line with US estimates by Romer and Romer. But when we consider a comparable policy experiment, as in the wider UK literature, we find that interest rate changes that are unwound over time lower inflation by 1 percentage point and output by around 0.6%.In addition to new estimates, our research also provides a novel forecast and real time dataset which is crucial for our results. These data provide a fruitful resource for future research.This column, therefore, provides fresh narrative evidence on the effects of monetary policy and aims to help inform the policy discussion as economies move away from the zero lower bound."