Mittwoch, 15. Oktober 2014

Martin Wolf über schleppende Erholung der Weltwirtschaft

Aus globaler Sicht läuft die Konjunktur nicht soooo schlecht; aber der Euroraum ist das Sorgenkind.

"[...] while the performance of high-income economies has been poor, especially in the eurozone, in the medium-term it is the emerging economies whose prospects appear bleakest.Yet disappointments need to be kept in proportion. If average annual growth of emerging economies were to remain over 5 per cent, their output would double every 14 years. [...]

In the US, where balance sheets are no longer so constrained and there has been at least modest growth since 2009, the economy might now start to accelerate. Among the other drivers of such growth would be cheap energy, a pick-up in investment and a recovery in household formation, which has been running at about half its pre-crisis levels. This would be unlikely to produce the kind of untoward jump in inflation that would force the Fed to apply the brakes. With the world economy weakening and oil prices falling, inflation should not be a real danger. The Fed should tighten slowly — and this is unlikely to create problems for economies outside the US.

The position of the eurozone is, alas, different. Germany, its most creditworthy country, remains dependent on external demand. It is also largely opposed to the unconventional monetary policies that might stimulate that demand. It is even more opposed to potent fiscal policies, either at home or across the eurozone. It [Germany] hopes that the magic of “structural reform” will awaken the animal spirits – although its own structural reforms in the past decade awakened no such spirits at home."

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