Dienstag, 27. Januar 2015

"risk sharing" im ESZB

Cecchetti und Schoenholtz sind besorgt über die Entscheidung der EZB die Risiken des Anleihekaufprogramms nicht komplett auf die gemeinsame Bilanz des ESZB zu nehmen:
"From our perspective, the problem is that capping risk-sharing is a major step away from a seamless pan-European financial market and toward the renationalization of monetary policy. Our prime concern is that depositors and investors will view the refusal on the part of European governments to mutualize sovereign risk (which is what this is) as a refusal to share financial system risk as well. This, in turn, would revive redenomination risk.

Initially the ECB’s announcement has improved financial market conditions, including somewhat lower bond yields, a rising stock market, and a falling euro. Yet, if we are right, then the risk-sharing arrangement undoes at least some, if not all, of the stimulative impact of QE. President Draghi said that funds flowing into German debt are fungible and can find their way to other euro-area countries. But, will funds in German banks find their way to peripheral banks? In the absence of an unlimited commitment to share banking system risk in the euro area, how much will German banks lend to Italian or Spanish banks, much less Greek banks?"
Ich kann das Argument nachvollziehen, aber bei gegebenen Institutionen war mehr politisch (und ggf. legal - das Urteil beim EuGH steht noch aus) wohl nicht drin ...

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