Montag, 2. März 2015

EA-Inflationserwartungen

Vier Forscher der FRBNY zeigen sich besorgt über den Abwärtstrend der Inflationserwartungen im Euroraum.

In ihrem Beitrag verweisen sie auf die Unterschiede bzgl. der Entwicklung der langfristigen Inflationserwartungen zwischen heute und der vorherigen Periode niedriger Inflationsraten in 2008.

"A comparison of the behavior of the series during the 2008-09 period and post-2012 period suggests very different responses to lower inflation. Specifically, while shorter-term inflation expectations fell during the 2008-09 period, long-term inflation expectations remained quite anchored. This pattern suggests that the decline in inflation associated with the 2008-09 recession was largely viewed as temporary. In contrast, the post-2012 period has witnessed a decline in inflation expectations across all three forecast horizons, suggesting the current decline in inflation is viewed as much more persistent. The ECB’s governing council has indicated that it aims to maintain inflation rates below, but close to, 2 percent over the medium term. The mean long-term inflation forecast has been below 2 percent since fourth-quarter 2013 and is currently reported at 1.8 percent."
Mal schauen, ob das QE-Programm nun zu einer Trendwende führt. Die nächsten Umfrageergebnisse gibt es im Mai.

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