Mittwoch, 11. März 2015

Prognosen von Yellen

Interessanter Beitrag im Wall Street Journal über den Prognose-Erfolgsgeschichte von J. Yellen, der aktuellen Vorsitzenden der Fed.
"Steering central bank policy depends more than anything on assessing where the economy is heading. Yet, central bankers, surprisingly, are seldom picked for their forecasting acumen. More often they are former public servants, bankers or academics.

Then there is Janet Yellen.

Her forecasts as a Fed official have been strikingly accurate, as the release of 2009 transcripts to the Fed’s deliberations make clear. If she worked on Wall Street, she’d be a “hot hand.” This does not mean as chairwoman she is necessarily right; but it does suggest her forecasts deserve the benefit of the doubt. [...]

All of these views look good given what happened over the next five years. The question is, why?

One reason could be that she was well briefed. The San Francisco Fed has traditionally had a strong research department, with a particular emphasis on current macroeconomic developments, and for a long time was the only bank to make its forecast public. [...] Ms. Yellen’s remarks to the FOMC, which are often scripted, refer at length to work by her staff."

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