Dienstag, 9. Juni 2015

Erklärungen für niedrige Zinsen

... wie A. Fatas die Welt sieht.

In einem aktuellen Beitrag erklärt er, warum er nicht glaubt, dass es sein kann, dass die Zentralbanken dieser Welt seit mehreren Jahren das langfristige Zinsniveau künstlich niedrig halten.
"The debate about who is responsible for the low level of interest rates that has prevailed in most economies over the last years heated up when Ben Bernanke wrote a series of blog posts on what determines interest rates. He argued, once again, that it is the global dynamics of saving and investment the one that created a downward trend in interest rates starting in the mid 90s and that it accelerated as a result of the crisis. [...]
There are, however, those who have a very different interpretation of the persistent low levels of interest rates.[...]

[H]ow can central banks be seen as so powerful as to control and distort a market price for such a long period of time? Typically, the models where central banks are powerful enough to do this are those with nominal rigidities in prices and wages. But these rigidities are assumed to be temporary as prices and contracts adjust. How can it be that central bank have managed to affect a real price (the real interest rate) for more than a decade? I cannot think of an accepted model that would support this. [...]
The second question is how can it be that such a low level of artificially low interest rates has not had any effect on inflation. [...] How can we explain a deviation from the Taylor rule that lasts for many years and that instead of causing an increase in inflation it is producing a low level of inflation everywhere where interest rates are low? Once again, not sure what model can explain this.
Finally, [...] interest rates are low at a global level, they are at low record levels everywhere in the world. What type of coordination exists between all central banks in the world to keep artificially low interest rates everywhere without generating inflation anywhere? [...]"
Ich lasse mich gerne überzeugen. Aber derzeit sehe auch ich keine Modelle, die erklären könnten, wie Realzinsen so lange künstlich niedrig gehalten werden können und warum das keine Preiseffekte auf den Gütermärkten haben sollte.

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