Montag, 15. Juni 2015

Griechenland-Poker

Der IWF erhöht den öffentlichen Druck ...

O. Blanchard fordert in einem Beitrag Griechenland zu Reformzusagen und die Gläubiger zur Zustimmung zu einem Schuldenschnitt auf. Ansonsten könne der IWF keine Zusage für weitere Hilfen geben ...
"On the one hand, the Greek government has to offer truly credible measures to reach the lower target budget surplus, and it has to show its commitment to the more limited set of reforms.  We believe that even the lower new target cannot be credibly achieved without a comprehensive reform of the VAT – involving a widening of its base – and a further adjustment of pensions.  Why insist on pensions? 

Pensions and wages account for about 75% of primary spending; the other 25% have already been cut to the bone.  Pension expenditures account for over 16% of GDP, and transfers from the budget to the pension system are close to 10% of GDP.  We believe a reduction of pension expenditures of 1% of GDP (out of 16%) is needed, and that it can be done while protecting the poorest pensioners.  We are open to alternative ways for designing both the VAT and the pension reforms, but these alternatives have to add up and deliver the required fiscal adjustment.

On the other hand, the European creditors would have to agree to significant additional financing, and to debt relief sufficient to maintain debt sustainability.We believe that, under the existing proposal, debt relief can be achieved through a long rescheduling of debt payments at low interest rates.  Any further decrease in the primary surplus target, now or later, would probably require, however, haircuts."
Die Uhr tickt ... bis Ende des Monats muss eine Lösung her ...

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