Montag, 23. November 2015

Finanzkrisen u. Wählerverhalten

Finanzkrisen führen zu knapperen Mehrheiten und Stimmengewinnen für rechte Parteien.

Das ist jedenfalls das Fazit einer interessanten Studie von Manuel Funke, Moritz Schularick und Christoph Trebesch. Auf de Vox-Seite fassen sie die Ergebnisse zusammen.
"Our first main finding is that politics takes a hard right turn following financial crises. On average, far-right votes increase by about a third in the five years following systemic banking distress [...]. This pattern is visible in the data both before and after WWII and is robust when controlling for economic conditions and different voting systems. The gains of extreme right-wing parties were particularly pronounced after the global crises of the 1920s/1930s and after 2008. However, we also find similar patterns after regional financial crises, such as the Scandinavian banking crises of the early 1990s. Moreover, we identify an important asymmetry in the political response to crises – on average, the far left did not profit equally from episodes of financial instability. [...]

The second key finding is that governing becomes more difficult after financial crises. Government majorities shrink and parliaments tend to fragment. [...]

The typical political reaction to financial crises is as follows: votes for far-right parties increase strongly, government majorities shrink, the fractionalisation of parliaments rises and the overall number of parties represented in parliament jumps. These developments likely hinder crisis resolution and contribute to political gridlock. The resulting policy uncertainty may contribute to the much-debated slow economic recoveries from financial crises.

In the light of modern history, political radicalisation, declining government majorities and increasing street protests appear to be the hallmark of financial crises. As a consequence, regulators and central bankers carry a big responsibility for political stability when overseeing financial markets. Preventing financial crises also means reducing the probability of a political disaster."
Da wurde wieder einmal (so vermute ich) viele Stunden an einem interessanten Datensatz gearbeitet.

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