Dienstag, 22. Dezember 2015

Mindestlohneffekte

D. Neumark schreibt über die Beschäftigungseffekte von Mindestlöhnen in einem Beitrag für die Fed in San Francisco.

"It is easy to be confused about what effects minimum wages have on jobs for low-skilled workers. Researchers offer conflicting evidence on whether or not raising the minimum wage means fewer jobs for these workers. Some recent studies even suggest overall employment could be harmed. This Letter sheds light on the range of estimates and the different approaches in the research that might explain some of the conflicting results. It also presents some midrange estimates of the aggregate employment effects from recent minimum wage increases based on the research literature. [...]

Thus, allowing for the possibility of larger job loss effects, based on other studies, and possible job losses among older low-skilled adults, a reasonable estimate based on the evidence is that current minimum wages have directly reduced the number of jobs nationally by about 100,000 to 200,000, relative to the period just before the Great Recession. This is a small drop in aggregate employment that should be weighed against increased earnings for still-employed workers because of higher minimum wages. Moreover, weighing employment losses against wage gains raises the broader question of how the minimum wage affects income inequality and poverty. [...]."
Insgesamt scheint es also keine positiven Beschäftigungseffekte zu geben (was man auch unter gängigen Annahmen nicht erwarten würde); die negativen Beschäftigungseffekte scheinen aber auch nicht groß zu sein. 

Dazu passt auch die aktuelle Erfahrung in Deutschland nach der Einführung des Mindestlohns. (Auch wenn es sich hier um ein "nationales Experiment" handelt, das keine Identifikation des genauen Effekts zulässt.)

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