Montag, 15. Februar 2016

Internationale Übertragung von Konjunkturzyklen

Handelsverflechtungen sind dafür wichtig.

Zu dem Schluss kommt jedenfalls eine Studie dreier Volkswirte, die auf der VOX-Seite vorgestellt wird. Ich bin kein Experte für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen, aber die Studie scheint eine interessante Makro-Anwendung auf Basis von Mikrodaten (Firmendaten in diesem Fall) zu sein.
"The business cycles of countries with greater bilateral trade and multinational production linkages are more closely correlated. But the meaning of this empirical relationship is not well understood. Some contend that these linkages allow for the transmission of shocks across countries, while others argue that countries that trade more with each other are similar in other ways and are thus subject to common shocks. Using data from France, this column examines the properties of international co-movement at the firm level. [...]

To summarise, even after controlling for common shocks, there is still substantial evidence of transmission of shocks through trade and multinational linkages. Among those linkages, trade linkages appear to matter more than multinational ones, especially when it comes to the aggregate impact. These results provide a firm empirical basis to the frequent presumption that cross-border linkages do propagate shocks across countries, and that this matters for the aggregate economy."

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