Donnerstag, 25. August 2016

Neues aus meiner Forschung

Nach arbeits- und urlaubsbedingter längerer Pause hier auf dem Blog hat sich so einiges angesammelt.

In der Zeitschrift Empirical Economics erscheint demnächst (in einer Ausgabe zu Ehren von Kajal Lahiri) ein Beitrag von Matthias Hartmann und mir über den Zusammenhang von Dissenzniveau und Prognosegüte bei professionellen Prognostikern. Das Abstract:
"We propose an imperfect information model for the expectations of macroeconomic forecasters that explains differences in average disagreement levels across forecasters by means of cross-sectional heterogeneity in the variance of private noise signals. We show that the forecaster-specific signal-to-noise ratios determine both the average individual disagreement level and an individuals’ forecast performance: Forecasters with very noisy signals deviate strongly f rom t he average forecasts and report forecasts with low accuracy. We take the model to the data by empirically testing for this implied correlation. Evidence based on data from the Surveys of Professional Forecasters for the USA and for the Euro Area supports the model for short- and medium-run forecasts but rejects it based on its implications for long-run forecasts."
Dann ist eine Studie, die ich zusammen mit Martin Feldkircher und Florian Huber geschrieben habe, über die Prognosegüte von globalen Konjunkturvorhersagen auf Basis von globalen vektorautoregressiven Modellen im Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control erschienen. Das Abstract:
"We analyze how modeling international dependencies improves forecasts for the global economy based on a Bayesian GVAR with SSVS prior and stochastic volatility. To analyze the source of performance gains, we decompose the predictive joint density into its marginals and a copula term capturing the dependence structure across countries. The GVAR outperforms forecasts based on country-specific models. This performance is solely driven by superior predictions for the dependence structure across countries, whereas the GVAR does not yield better predictive marginal densities. The relative performance gains of the GVAR model are particularly pronounced during volatile periods and for emerging economies."

Ein Beitrag aus dem gleichen Forschungsfeld, den ich zusammen mit Wilfried Rickels und Martin Quaas geschrieben habe, ist von der Zeitschrift Global Environmental Change veröffentlicht worden. In dieser Studie untersuchen wir, ob hohe Konkurenz zwischen verschiedenen Ländern um ozeanische Resourcen dazu führt, dass diese weniger nachhaltig genutzt werden. Dabei schauen wir uns verschiedene Dimensionen der Meeresgesundheit an. Das Abstract:
"Regions and countries manage and sustain oceanic resources and services with varying degrees of success. Our empirical analysis discusses the extent to which this variation can be explained by common-pool resource (CPR) characteristics, controlling for institutional quality, island status, the existence of marine-protected areas, and the ratification of marine environmental agreements. Using data from the Ocean Health Index (OHI), we confirm that the problems related to CPRs are not restricted to fisheries. Other oceanic services and assets, including the provision of oceanic natural products, habitat health, and species richness, also decline with the number of neighboring countries. By contrast, the aspects of ocean health-like sustainable tourism, the preservation of iconic species, or the mitigation of trash pollution benefit from neighborhood stress. Overall, there is little evidence that economic development (expressed in per capita gross domestic product [GDP] and used as a proxy for institutional quality) contributes to sustaining oceanic resources. In general, the OHI appears to capture the established characteristics of various oceanic resources and services very well. Accordingly, it represents an important data source for improving our understanding of the variation in oceanic resources and services, an indispensable factor in developing and achieving sustainable development strategies for the ocean."
Zurzeit arbeite ich an mehreren Projekten, die ich hier auch vorstellen werde, wenn sie fertig sind.

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