Dienstag, 6. Dezember 2016

Gefühlte Inflation und Inflationserwartungen

Beides hängt anscheinend (vlt. nicht überraschend) eng zusammen.

Aus einem Beitrag der Fed:
"[F]igure 3 shows scatterplots of reported inflation perceptions versus inflation expectations, along with simple regression lines. For the 5-to-10 year measures, there is a clear positive correlation (especially when we ignore three outliers with perceived inflation of 25 percent or higher). For the 12-month measures the correlation is weaker given the wider range of responses; but when we limit ourselves to individuals with both perceived and expected inflation that is between negative 10 percent and positive 15 percent (about 95 percent of the respondents who answered numerically the questions on both perceptions and expectations), a strong positive correlation becomes evident."


Dies ist eine interessante Beobachtung, die zumindest für Haushaltserwartungen eine zusätzliche Begründung dafür liefert, dass Erwartungen für Makrovariablen typischerweise breit streuen.

Carola Binder bezieht sich in einem Blog-Beitrag auf die Fed-Studie und schreibt:
"[...] consumers seem just as uncertain about past inflation, or even more so, as about future inflation. [...]

What does this tell us? People are just as unsure about inflation in the relatively recent past as they are about inflation in the near to medium-run future. And this says something important for monetary policymakers. A goal of the Federal Reserve is to anchor medium- to long-run inflation expectations at the 2% target. With strongly-anchored expectations, we should see most expectations near 2% with low uncertainty. If people are uncertain about longer-run inflation, it could either be that they are unaware of the Fed's inflation target, or aware but unconvinced that the Fed will actually achieve its target. It is difficult to say which is the case. The former would imply that we need more public informedness about economic concepts and the Fed, while the latter would imply that the Fed needs to improve its credibility among an already-informed public. Since perceptions are about as uncertain as expectations, this lends support to the idea that people are simply uninformed about inflation-- or that memory of economic statistics is relatively poor."
Ich bin skeptisch, was die letzte Schlussfolgerung angeht. Ich glaube viele Leute sind ausreichend über die offiziellen Inflationsraten informiert ... glauben diese aber aus verschiedenen Gründen schlicht nicht.
 

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